Researcher predicts Solar Cycle with the greatest activity in recent years

By Brenno Hochwart |

Astrophysicist Scott McIntosh of the National Center for Atmospheric Research published an article on journal Solar Physics, proposing what may be the biggest solar activity of the last 50 years. His new methodology for forecasting Space Climate will be put into place during the new solar cycle (25) that has recently started. If confirmed, we can expect large number of Geomagnetic Storms. However, his study is not aligned with what was predicted by the international panel of scientists. This Solar Cycle is expected to be either one of regular or low intensity, as the predecessor. This contrast of ideas can be explained by showing how poorly understood solar physics still is.

Impacts on Defense and Security: An accurate prediction of the Space Climate is essential for the maintenance of critical structures and the nation’s defense. Its phenomena directly impact satellites in orbit, essential to communication and the global economy. Besides that, extreme events can cause power outages in large regions. Therefore, the anticipation of solar phenomena is essential for the decision making.

Source: MCINTOSH, Scott W. et al. Overlapping magnetic activity cycles and the sunspot number: forecasting sunspot cycle 25 amplitude. Solar Physics, v. 295, n. 12, p. 1-14, 2020. Available at: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-020-01723-y.